Charlie Cook’s folks have just released new ratings for four key senate races. Thay are as follows:
Oregon: Lean R to Toss-Up
North Carolina: Likely R to Lean R
New Mexico: Toss-Up to Lean D
Kentucky: Solid R to Likely R
The blue bus keeps on rolling. I’ll keep you updated on any further changes for today.
New conspiracy Senate Ratings
Favored D
VA
NM
Lean D
CO
NH
LA
Too Close to Call
AK
MS
OR
Lean R
MN
ME
NC
KY
Favored R
TX
KS
OK
GA
NE
ID
though, from No Clear Favorite to Lean R, citing Franken’s “troubles,” despite the conflicting polls.
I sent them an e-mail a couple days ago before he posted these updates complaining about his ratings. He had NM as a toss-up, even though it polls about the same as VA. And he STILL seems to think Johnson is in some kind of danger, when he clearly is not, and if anyone is (besides Landrieu), it’s Lautenberg (although few people are really worried about him either, including me). I also don’t understand why he has NE as “Likely R” when NE has so far appeared less competitive than KS, KY, TX, and maybe even ID and GA.
I also can’t stand how he refuses to place an endangered incumbent below Toss-Up (he admits this is his policy). He kept Santorum in Toss-Up up until election day in 2006, even though he was consistently about 20 points behind his challenger.
Even Stu Rothenberg, who I generally can’t stand, posted a column about Cook’s methodology and how it differs from his. His ratings are a little more logical and don’t appear to have the same right-wing bias that most of his columns do. And CQ Politics just tries to shove as many races as they can onto their charts. I would have to go with SSP’s ratings above these three, although SSP seems a bit conservative at times (probably cautiously optimistic).